For the eighth
straight year vehicle miles traveled declined. In this recent report (see link
above) the State Smart Transportation Initiative (SSTI) stated that there is
little correlation between fuel prices and per capita VMTs. However, the SSTI
hypothesize that there are a variety of factors responsible for the VMT decline
including a retiring baby boomer generation, more compact development in
numerous cities across the country, tolling and market-pricing of parking.
Further emphasis was placed on additional trends that may have influenced the
growth of VMTs but are now subsiding such as: the completed transition of women
working outside of the home, car ownership has become common place, and the
time allowance that people budget for car travel has likely hit a peak.
I agree with the SSTI’s report regarding why VMTs have been on the
decline. In fact the very reasons listed by the SSTI’s report are some of the
reasons why I am concerned about the Columbia River Crossing (CRC) bridge
project. CRC staff have planned for the financing of a new bridge to be based
on bonds. These bonds would be paid back over a twenty year period. In order to
pay those bonds back and meet the twenty year timeline traffic across the
bridge would have to increase more than 1.2% every year for twenty consecutive
years; which has never happened before. On top of that these VMT increases
would be on a bridge that would have a toll.
Does anyone
really believe that daily vehicle trips across the Columbia will increase
enough to pay down the bonds in time? If the bonds aren’t paid down on time the
cost of a new bridge could rise from the estimated $4 billion to more than $10
billion. Leaving future generations paying the tab.
Although almost
$200 million have already been spent on the planning, design, and environmental
impact analysis of the CRC, it just might be time to go back to the drawing
board. Certainly there must be a way to build a less expensive bridge that
would accomplish the same goals while not handcuffing our children with the
bill.
This article edited by Ahmed
Great point! Always makes you wonder if planning a project this large should require additional analysis based on industry trends and/or research. Financing is such a huge part of this bridge and definitely one of the most controversial, so it would almost seem inevitable that something like this should have been studied.
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